COP29, the multilateral decision-making forum on climate change in Baku, Azerbaijan, has just concluded, yet the Prabowo government’s commitment to achieving its goal of net zero emissions remains unclear. To compound matters, a significant number of Indonesian Muslims believe that climate change is a sign of the apocalypse, hinting that much needs to be done to further green transition at the ground level.

At the highest political level, Indonesia appears to be having a slow start with regard to energy transition. The Asta Cita, which defines the direction of Prabowo’s leadership, pays little attention to environmental issues, let alone energy transition as one of the mitigation efforts to minimise the impact of climate change. Of Prabowo’s eight major visions, only one touches on environmental concerns, and this frames the green economy as a secondary goal tied to national security and self-sufficiency.

At a regional level, Indonesia ranks relatively low among Southeast Asian countries in terms of energy transition readiness. According to a World Economic Forum report, Indonesia has a score of 38.6, which places it ahead of just the Philippines (33.2) and Brunei Darussalam (35.7) but behind Malaysia (49.3), Vietnam (56.9), and Singapore (57.6).

Beyond the political and policy level, Indonesia’s energy transition remains elusive, with much of the population uninformed about it. A national survey conducted from 1 March to 21 April 2024 by the Center for the Study of Islam and Society (PPIM) of Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University (UIN) Jakarta finds that Muslims, as the majority of Indonesia’s population, still have a limited understanding of energy transition. Only 20.1 per cent of Indonesian Muslims know the term energy transition, suggesting that people are unprepared to shift to clean energy. The survey, titled “Religious Environmentalism Action (REACT) in Indonesia”, involved 3,045 Muslim respondents, of which 1,525 were male and 1,520 females. Their ages ranged from 15 to 81 years old.

This condition is further exacerbated by the prevalence of apocalyptic beliefs among Indonesian Muslims, which will hinder the process of energy transition in the future. According to the PPIM survey, 58.2 per cent of Indonesian Muslims agree that climate change is a sign of the apocalypse.

Cataclysmic Views and Climate Change
Figure 1. Muslims’ Perception of Signs of Apocalypse as the Causes of Climate Change

Apocalyptic beliefs hinder the implementation of energy transition in several ways. First, such views may discourage environmentally friendly behavior. People with apocalyptic beliefs tend to be reluctant to take pro-environmental actions. The PPIM survey data also suggests a lower propensity for pro-environmental behaviour among those holding apocalyptic views compared to individuals considering economic activity and human lifestyle as the causes of climate change. As shown in Figure 2, Muslims holding apocalyptic beliefs tend to be less active in pro-environmental behaviour at the personal level, such as practising zero-waste lifestyle as well as water and energy saving. They were also less likely to be active in pro-environmental behaviour at the public level, either in small-scale environmental activism such as participating in ecological clean-up activities, or large-scale environmental activism such as participating in campaigns, signing petitions, and donating to ecological causes.

In contrast, Muslims who see economic activities as the cause of climate change tend to exhibit more eco-friendly behaviour in the private and public spheres.

When Perceptions Drive Behaviour
Figure 2. Indonesian Muslims’ Perception of Climate Change Causes and Their Pro-Environmental Behavior

Second, apocalyptic views may encourage fatalism, which sees climate change as unavoidable. As a result, apocalyptic societies tend not to put pressure on governments to implement environmentally friendly policies. Apocalyptic beliefs are considered extraordinarily powerful in suppressing or displacing social conflict and antagonisms. A study of the environmental movement, for example, mentions that apocalyptic beliefs do not have a mobilising effect. Instead, they impose a passive attitude among citizens.

In Islamic theology, fatalism is congruent with Jabariyya — the Islamic theological group centred on the notion that the lives of people are dictated by predestination so that they are without choice or free will. The PPIM survey also reveals that 6 out of 10 Muslims who agree to the statement that God plays the most important role in their fate also agree that climate change is a sign of the apocalypse.

The combination of leadership indifference and public disengagement will delay the energy transition process and prevent Indonesia from achieving its zero-carbon target by 2060. Additionally, political inaction amplifies the situation by failing to educate and motivate change. Thus, addressing this issue from both the policy and the grassroots levels is critical, as it involves civil society and religious leaders.

In Islamic theology, fatalism is congruent with Jabariyya — the Islamic theological group centred on the notion that the lives of people are dictated by predestination so that they are without choice or free will.

There is a need to frame environmental neglect as a security threat by highlighting Indonesia’s vulnerability to environmental calamities and climate change impacts. This might contribute to mass displacement of people and economic loss. Prabowo, as someone who always champions national security, needs to show his commitment to the energy transition as an important part of the security issue through clear, measurable policies in renewable energy adoption.

Grassroots movements, youth, and religious-based environmental movements must hold leaders accountable for addressing climate goals and green policies. Additionally, civil society should participate in strengthening public campaigns to counter apathy and fatalism toward climate change using social media. They can collaborate with educational institutions to educate people on the importance of energy transition for a sustainable future.

Finally, given the significant role of religion in Indonesian society, religious leaders should actively contribute as agents of socialisation in raising environmental awareness in the public sphere. Energy transition issues should be incorporated into religious preachings to enhance public acceptance. Islamic values can be a powerful basis for encouraging public acceptance of green energy uses. Mosaic, an organisation of Muslims for shared action on climate impact, for example, uses the concept of “sedekah energi” to initiate Islamic almsgiving to supply renewable energy.

“This article was published by IIm Halimatusa’diyah | Aptiani Nur Jannah | Grace Rachmanda on Fulcrum on 29th November, and can be read at [URL].